2yo Racing Odious Comparisons

Featured Image: ‘Vain’ by Michael Jeffery with Pat Hyland up. Courtesy of the Australian Turf Club

Random Comparison of 2YO Sires Premiership 2014/2015 – 2023/2024* to date 13/04/2024
Name                        Runners/Winners/Races Won/Stakes Winners/Stakes Races
Sire Premiership Table 2YO 2014/2015
4 Snitzel 51 21 22 3 3
6 I Am Invincible 42 20 26 1 1
Sire Premiership Table 2YO 2015/2016
1 Written Tycoon 24 10 21 3 6
Sire Premiership Table 2YO 2017/2018
1 Snitzel 56 13 17 4 6
2 I Am Invincible 61 25 30 4 4
3 Zoustar 34 10 18 3 5
4 Written Tycoon 31 10 15 1 3
Sire Premiership Table 2YO 2018/2019
1 I Am Invincible 67 27 36 8 10
2 Snitzel 65 23 29 3 3
Sire Premiership Table 2YO 2019/2020 (as at 13/04/2020)
1 Snitzel 33 16 20 3 6
2 Not a Single Doubt 29 5 12 2 5
3 I Am Invincible 41 14 19 4 4
Sire Premiership Table 2YO 2023/2024 (as at 13/04/2024)
1.        Written Tycoon                21       5 (1)   6 (2)   23.8%           $4,046,240
3.        Snitzel                                  21       6 (3)   8 (3)   28.6%           $1,738,000
15.      I Am Invincible                 22       4 (1)   5 (2)   18.2%           $804,740

The table appears to highlight the ‘relative demise’ of some of our recent champion stallions with advancing age. This is both to be expected and anticipated. However, the ‘decline’ (in numbers) appears to show a rather rapid deterioration when compared to previous epochs.

See: https://sconevetdynasty.com.au/todman-and-sellwood-set-the-standard-for-other-champions/

See: https://sconevetdynasty.com.au/slipper-champions-well-ahead-of-current-crop/

See: https://sconevetdynasty.com.au/two-year-old-pool-the-shallow-end/

  • Written Tycoon Foaled 2002           Rising 22 (in 2024)
  • Snitzel Foaled 2002           Rising 22 (in 2024)
  • I Am Invincible Foaled 2004           Rising 20 (in 2024)

Max Presnell has volunteered the opinion that our recent and current crop(s) of 2-year-olds do not compare favourably with recent iterations. Both ‘Written Tycoon’ and ‘Snitzel’ have produced Golden Slipper Winners. I Am Invincible is yet to do so despite producing prolific numbers of ‘juveniles’ in his stud career. In each case the presiding ‘plenipotentiary’ of each aged stallion as measured by statistical results has dropped away. That is, they are ‘generating’ fewer individuals of races won.

Although the number of foals (‘offspring’) by each has been exponentially greater than previous generations (x4 – x6) this increase is not expressed in the current championship tables?  Have attitudes to 2yo racing changed? Have the administrators of racing implemented subtle modifications? Do we produce and market yearlings as we used to; or are other factors at work possibly attuned to the reduction in the number of ‘commercially used’ thoroughbred stallions and the logarithmic explosion in number of mares covered by each?

Tara Madgwick has produced some ‘alarming statistics’ (See: https://sconevetdynasty.com.au/two-year-old-pool-the-shallow-end/ ) which beg the question(s) of selecting and purchasing  young thoroughbreds.

All this raises many questions; some without answers. They range between ‘esoteric to exoteric’, ‘scientific to anecdotal’ and ‘practical to virtual’.

  1. Is the narrowing of the ‘genotype’ justified?
  2. Are we pushing popular (‘commercial’) stallions beyond what is reasonable?
  3. Is the product we are generating (‘foals’) natural or artificial?
  4. Are feeding regimes appropriate for optimal development of both the unborn foetus and growing foals?
  5. (Some feeding regimes are predicated on maximal rather than optimal growth & development).
  6. Are we pushing the early evolution of the conceptus too much?
  7. Are the marketing strategies of the principal sales companies most appropriate for sales, commerce and the viability of the breed/’whole herd’?
  8. Does marketing mean manipulation?
  9. Does ‘genuine’ rate a mention?
  10. The antonym of ‘genuine’ is meretricious. It’s sobering consideration.
  11. Are the early race programs of the principal clubs best suited for competing young thoroughbreds?
  12. Is all this a consequence of ‘going too often to the well?
  13. ‘Timeform’ Phil Bull’s (remember him?) ultimate accolade was a horse was GENUINE. Does this still apply?

In a season when he will break Snitzel’s record the champion sire I Am Invincible has >90% of his winnings in dollar terms in races <1200m – 1600m. At these distances he is the leading sire. There are a few winners (c. 5% $-earnings) at race distances 1600m – 2000m where he stands 7th in this category. At race distances 2000m+ I Am Invincible does not appear in the top 100 sires. This means he does not produce stock capable of competing in the traditional ‘Group Classic Races’ which are run at these metric distances.